Self-Perceived Infertility is Not Always Associated with Having Fewer Children: Evidence from German Panel Data.

Proximate determinants theory considers infertility rates a risk factor for lower fertility rates, but the assumption that people who perceive infertility will have fewer children has not been tested. This study investigates the association of self-perceived infertility with the number of children people have had after 11 years. Infertility implies reduced chances of conception (rather than sterility), but people do not always consistently perceive infertility over time. If people who think they are infertile at one time can later report no infertility, then does self-perceived infertility necessarily lead to having fewer children? We answer this question by analyzing 11 waves of the German family panel (pairfam) data using negative binomial growth curve models for eight core demographic subgroups created by combinations of gender (men/women), parity (0/1+children), and initial age groups (25-27 and 35-37). Those who repeatedly perceived themselves to be infertile (three times or more) had fewer children than those who perceived themselves to be infertile once or twice in only four of eight gender by initial parity by age groups. Only in four groups did people who perceived themselves to be infertile once or twice have fewer children than those who never perceived themselves to be infertile in both the unadjusted and adjusted models. Thus, self-perceived infertility does not necessarily result in fewer children. Rather, the association depends upon life course context and gender.

Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden.

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020-2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-month lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.4 in early 2022 and again in autumn 2022, a decline of about 10% in several months. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths, but a strong association with the onset of vaccination programmes and the weakening of pandemic-related restrictions. The fertility decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that women adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant. Fertility decreased as societies were opening up with more normalized life conditions. We provide novel information on fertility declines and the COVID-19-fertility nexus during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

Religiosity and trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions - Evidence from a German panel study.

Much of the literature on fertility intentions has shown that they are broadly predictive of fertility behaviour. Fertility intentions tend to change over a person's life. How religiosity affects these changes over time has rarely been the subject of investigation. In this paper, we focus on whether and how religiosity affects trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions. Specifically, we examine whether highly religious people start with higher fertility intentions and are more likely to sustain them during their life course compared to their less religious counterparts. We apply random and fixed effects growth curve models to data from the German family panel pairfam, using a sample of 6214 women and 5802 men aged 14-46. We find that religiosity mainly contributes to explain the starting level at teenage years but not the trajectories of lifetime fertility intentions as people get older. Highly religious people start with higher intentions than less religious people. However, similarly to less religious people they experience a decline in their fertility intentions with age. This study demonstrates that religiosity is an important variable in research on fertility intentions but with changing relevance over the life course.

How the COVID-19 pandemic and related school closures reduce physical activity among children and adolescents in the WHO European Region: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging research suggests that physical activity among children and adolescents decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a differentiated overview of European youth is lacking. In particular, no systematic analysis has been conducted to date on the impact of heterogeneous pandemic restrictions and school closures within European countries, and with regard to potentially vulnerable groups. METHODS: We searched seven databases and included studies for children and adolescents (≤ 19 years) of the WHO European Region that compared physical activity during the COVID-19 pandemic with a pre-pandemic baseline using validated measurement instruments. We used the Oxford Stringency Index and School Closure Index as indicators of restriction stringency. Screening for eligibility, data extraction, assessment of the study risk of bias (using the 'Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies - of Exposure' [ROBINS-E]) and certainty grading of evidence (using the GRADE approach), were all done in duplicate. Unpublished data was requested from study authors. Data were pooled in random effects models. An a priori protocol was published, reporting is carried out in accordance with the 'Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses' (PRISMA) statement. RESULTS: Of 14,897 non-duplicate records, 26 publications (n = 15,038 pre-pandemic, n = 13,041 during pandemic) met full inclusion criteria. Comparison before and during the COVID-19 pandemic revealed a significant reduction in total physical activity (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.57 [95%CI, -0.95; -0.20]) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (SMD, -0.43 [95% CI, -0.75; -0.10]), corresponding to a decrease of 12 min per day (a 20% reduction of the WHO recommendation). A decrease in sporting activity was also recorded. Subgroup analyses suggested that middle childhood (aged 8-12) and adolescents were particularly affected by the decline. School closures were associated with a reduction in physical activity. The certainty of evidence for all outcomes was low. CONCLUSIONS: A sharp decline in all forms of physical activity was recorded among European children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline was higher during periods of school closure and mainly affected younger schoolchildren and adolescents. Immediate action by policy-makers and practitioners, as well as evidence-based public health strategies, are imperative in reversing this trend. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42023395871.

Physical activity and physical fitness among children and adolescents after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the WHO European Region: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The implementation of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions resulted in limitations for physical activity (PA) opportunities, which may have initiated a longer-term behavioural change. The protocol describes the methodology for a planned systematic review that aims to summarise changes in PA and physical fitness (PF) in children and adolescents in the WHO European Region after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The protocol adheres to the 'Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis for Protocols' (PRISMA-P) statement. Using a peer-reviewed search strategy according to the evidence-based checklist 'Peer Review of Electronic Search Strategies' (PRESS), we will perform a systematic literature search in seven databases. Inclusion criteria are all primary studies that gathered data on children and adolescents ≤19 years living in the WHO European Region and made a comparison to pre-pandemic data. Primary outcomes are PA and PF. We will assess the risk of bias with the 'Risk of Bias Instrument for Non-Randomized Studies of Exposures' (ROBINS-E). The 'Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation' (GRADE) approach will be used for the evaluation of the certainty of evidence. Also, subgroup analyses will be performed (eg, for gender, age, stringency of pandemic restrictions). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required, as primary data will not be collected in this study. The results will be presented in a peer-reviewed publication and at congresses relevant to the research field. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023395871.

Anxiety increased among children and adolescents during pandemic-related school closures in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Considering the heterogenous evidence, a systematic review of the change in anxiety in European children and adolescents associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is lacking. We therefore assessed the change compared with pre-pandemic baselines stratified by gender and age as well as evaluated the impact of country-specific restriction policies. METHODS: A registration on the 'International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews' (PROSPERO) occurred and an a priori protocol was published. We searched six databases (PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, WHO COVID-19) using a peer-reviewed search string with citation tracking and grey literature screening. Primary outcomes were: (1) general anxiety symptoms; and (2) clinically relevant anxiety rates. We used the Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index as an indicator of pandemic-related restrictions. Screening of title/abstract and full text as well as assessing risk of bias (using the 'Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Exposure' [ROBINS-E]) and certainty of evidence (using the 'Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation' [GRADE]) was done in duplicate. We pooled data using a random effects model. Reporting is in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. RESULTS: Of 7,422 non-duplicate records, 18 studies with data from 752,532 pre-pandemic and 763,582 pandemic participants met full inclusion criteria. For general anxiety symptoms the total change effect estimate yielded a standardised mean difference (SMD) of 0.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-0.51) and for clinically relevant anxiety rates we observed an odds ratio of 1.08 (95%-CI, 0.98-1.19). Increase in general anxiety symptoms was highest in the 11-15 years age group. Effect estimates were higher when pandemic-related restrictions were more stringent (Oxford Stringency Index > 60: SMD, 0.52 [95%-CI, 0.30-0.73]) and when school closures (School Closure Index ≥ 2: SMD, 0.44 [95%-CI, 0.23-0.65]) occurred. CONCLUSION: General anxiety symptoms among children and adolescents in Europe increased in a pre/during comparison of the COVID-19 pandemic; particularly for males aged 11-15 years. In periods of stringent pandemic-related restrictions and/or school closures a considerable increase in general anxiety symptoms could be documented. PROSPERO registration: CRD42022303714.

Anxiety among children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies point to a high mental health burden among children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly concerning anxiety. However, the study quality and effect direction are heterogeneous in the existing primary studies with a lacking overview for the European continent. Therefore, this systematic review aims to critically synthesise the evidence regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on anxiety among children and adolescents in Europe compared to a pre-pandemic baseline. METHODS: A systematic literature search will be performed in six databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and WHO COVID-19 database) with a peer reviewed search strategy according to the evidence-based checklist Peer Review of Electronic Search Strategies (PRESS). Inclusion criteria are children and adolescents ≤ 19 years living in Europe and data report during the COVID-19 pandemic with an appropriate pre-pandemic baseline. Primary outcomes are general anxiety symptoms and clinically relevant anxiety rates. Risk of bias will be assessed using the 'Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Exposure' (ROBINS-E). Data extraction will systematically include information on study design, population characteristics, COVID-19 determinants, pre-pandemic baseline, diagnostic instruments and outcome. The certainty of evidence for each outcome will be evaluated by using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach adapted to the use of non-randomised studies. All process steps will be performed independently by two reviewers; any discrepancies will be discussed and, if necessary, resolved by a third author. Also, subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, publication bias analysis, and meta-regression analysis, if applicable, will be performed. The systematic review was registered in the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) and the protocol was prepared in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) statement. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will address the lack of a critical and comprehensive summary of findings on the COVID-19 pandemic impact on anxiety among children and adolescents in Europe. In addition, it aims to identify pandemic-policy differences, such as the effect of school-closures, and identify particularly vulnerable risk groups. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42022303714 (PROSPERO).

Increase of depression among children and adolescents after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Research points to a high depression burden among youth during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, a lack of systematic evidence exists. We determine the change in depression symptoms among children and adolescents during COVID-19 compared to pre-pandemic baselines. By using country differences in pandemic-related restrictions and school closures in Europe as quasi-experimental design, we evaluate policy impacts on depression. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, following the PRISMA statement, we searched six databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, WHO COVID-19) using a peer-reviewed search string up until March 18, 2022 with citation tracking and grey literature searches. No limitations regarding language and effect measures existed. We included studies that compared (1) general depression symptoms or (2) clinically relevant depression rates in children and adolescents (≤ 19 years) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The validated Oxford Stringency Index was used as indicator for pandemic-related restrictions. Screening for eligibility, extracting data from published reports and from unpublished data requested directly from study authors, assessing the study risk of bias and grading certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach, were all done in duplicate. Data were pooled in a random-effects model. PROSPERO: CRD42022303714. RESULTS: Of 7,422 nonduplicate records, 22 studies with data from 868,634 participants pre-pandemic and 807,480 during pandemic, met full inclusion criteria. For the comparison of depression symptoms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, moderate certainty of evidence was observed for general depression symptoms (standardized mean difference, 0.21 [95%CI, 0.12-0.30]; I2 = 94%) and low certainty of evidence for clinically relevant depression rates (odds ratio, 1.36 [95%CI, 1.05-1.76]; I2 = 95%) for total population. Increase in general depression symptoms was higher for male adolescents, whereas increase in clinically relevant depression rates was higher for females. Effect estimates were significantly higher when pandemic-related restrictions were more stringent or school closure occurred. CONCLUSION: An increase in depression symptoms occurred in a pre-pandemic vs. during-pandemic comparison within the COVID-19 pandemic, whereby pandemic-related restrictions (such as school closures) resulted in a considerable effect increase. Ensuring adequate supply of mental health recovery services and long-term monitoring is of high public health relevance.

Is perceived inability to procreate associated with life satisfaction? Evidence from a German panel study.

Most studies of the psychosocial consequences of infertility have focused on those who seek medical treatment, leaving a research gap regarding the psychosocial consequences of perceived inability to procreate in the general population. Moreover, most studies are cross-sectional and the results are thus likely affected by omitted variable bias. Inspired by aspects of the Theory of Conjunctural Action, this study analysed 10 waves of data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) for women and men using fixed effects panel regression and including time-varying control variables suggested by theory and research. This study found that both women and men experienced lower life satisfaction in years when they perceived an inability to procreate. This association was not affected by the inclusion of relevant time-varying control variables. Furthermore, the association between perceived barriers to procreation and life satisfaction was found to differ depending on life circumstances and gender. Women with partners and men without partners had lower life satisfaction when they perceived an inability to procreate compared with when they did not. Women and men who intended to have a(nother) child had lower life satisfaction when they perceived an inability to procreate compared with when they did not. The association, however, was only significant for men. Somewhat surprisingly, women who perceived an inability to procreate also had lower life satisfaction when they were not intending to have a(nother) child. This study makes an important contribution to research on the psychosocial consequences of perceived infertility, and provides insights into why some people may pursue assisted reproductive technology for family creation.

Is perception of inability to procreate a temporal phenomenon?: A longitudinal exploration of changes and determinants among women and men of reproductive age in Germany.

Continued postponement of births and increasing use of reproductive medicine enhance the relevance of infertility and related perceptions for fertility research. Fertility researchers tend to assume that an existing perception of inability to procreate is a stable trait among persons of reproductive age. This assumption is questionable from a life course perspective and has not been thoroughly investigated. Therefore we investigate the prevalence, stability, and correlates of perceived inability to procreate. We apply between-within logit models to annual panel data (2008-2015) to study variation in perceived inability to procreate within individuals over time and between individuals. We find that approximately every 20th person of reproductive age is affected. There is considerable instability among those who ever perceive an inability to procreate: On average, 39 % of women and 48 % of men who perceive an inability in one year change to not perceiving an inability in the next year. Multivariate analysis shows that increases in age and perception of one's partner as unable to procreate are associated with higher odds of perceiving an inability to procreate. Not using contraception is associated with higher odds of perceiving an inability to procreate. Perceived procreative ability further differs by parity, level of education, immigration background, and religious denomination. In summary, perception of inability to procreate is a temporal phenomenon that is shaped by lifecourse contexts and social group differences.